French Open

Has there ever been a more prohibitive favorite in any Grand Slam event ever than Rafael Nadal is in this year’s French Open? In any sport, ever, has there ever been another 4/11 favorite in a major championship?

Nadal has been so dominant and so overwhelming on clay that despite last weekend’s final match 4-6, 4-6 loss to Roger Federer, he has been installed as a shocking 4/11 bookmaker favorite. Nadal is in the unusual position of being a predominant favorite and a bad bet for the French Open at Roland Garros in Paris.

On paper, he has the credentials. On the court, he has the game. In front of the media, the muscular, 22 year old Spaniard has the answers, the confidence and the air of a champion. Rafael Nadal is clearly the best tennis player on the planet and on the red clay of Paris, he seems unbeatable.

With more than $24 million in career earnings, with more than $4 million 2009 earnings under his belt and with the last 4 French Open titles in his trophy case, Nadal will celebrate his 23rd June 3rd birthday during the May 24th – June 7th tournament. He would love to spoil the party by taking home the Coupe de Mousquetaires and the handsome check that goes alongside.

The feisty Spaniard is looking to capture leg two of this year’s Grand Slam after his impressive triumph in Melbourne. Even though the favorite lost in Madrid, he has impressed bookmakers and tennis experts with his 33 consecutive clay court wins and his 150 – 5 career record on clay. Nadal has not lost a match in four years at Roland Garros and as he prepares to pursue his fifth consecutive French Open title, the question is who will wrest the championship from him.

Roger Federer

Buoyed by his win in Madrid, Switzerland’s star seems more confident than in the past. Not that a winner of 13 Grand Slam tournaments needs a boost in confidence, but it is clear that Nadal’s success is wearing thin on the Swiss magician. Federer overcame tough opposition in reaching the finals at Melbourne and in the Australian heat put everything he had on the table in the finals. The loss seemed to take an emotional toll on the 11 year Grand Slam veteran.

Rather than pullback, Federer has worked hard on his game. He now boasts a heart-stopping drop shot that could well be the key to his success in Paris. The courts in Madrid were faster than the courts at Roland Garros, but clay is clay and a championship trophy deserves to be raised high.

With more than $46 million in career earnings and with $2 million banked this season, Federer knows what he has to do. All Grand Slam events are physically challenging and filled with distractions, but here is one player who has been there before. With one more Grand Slam championship, he will rise above Pete Sampras and claim the most Grand Slam Trophies of any player ever.

In addition to his 5 U.S. Open Championships, 5 Wimbledon Championships and 3 Australian Championships, Federer would like nothing more than to capture his first Trophy at Roland Garros. Roger’s resume also sports 5 Grand Slam Runnerup trophies.

Not bad for the bookmaker’s 13/2 second choice. Federer is ready and is playing and practicing to win. Second place is not good enough this time around.

Novak Djokovic

This year the bookmakers like the number three seed. Also at 13/2 the tall Serb has come a long way since Australia, where he received plenty of criticism for withdrawing during his fourth round match. Analysts have long questioned Djokovic’s will to win, but his skills and potential have long been admired.

With the 2008 Australian Open in hand, Djokovic has a Grand Slam title to his credit and since 2007 he has reached the semis or finals 6 times. His big serve and powerful ground strokes make the big guy a threat, but his foot speed and endurance have never allowed him past the semis at Roland Garros.

Since the fiasco in Melbourne, Djokovic appears to have re-focused his game. In Australia, he appeared out-of-shape, out-of-heart and out-of-gas. Since then, he has improved each week. His four-hour marathon against Nadal at last week’s Madrid Masters was memorable, but as in so many of Novak’s memorable matches, the Serb came up short.

Djokovic needs a break-through win to unlock his vast earning potential and expand his trophy case. While clay is not his best surface, his Madrid performance suggests he is peaking at the right time.

Since 2005, Djokovic has won more than $12 million and this year has banked more than $1.7. The two-week Grand Slam schedule has never played to Djokovic’s hand. Analysts feel he is a weak 13/2 bet.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray is a fast court player with the serve, ground strokes and foot speed for grass and hard court success. Ever since his Runnerup finish at the U.S. Open, the world has been waiting for Murray to put his awesome shot- making skills together and emerge from the shadows of Nadal and Federer.

Bookmakers think he has a 10/1 chance to succeed. Avid tennis followers do not like his chances. Like his countrymen, tennis experts have been disappointed by Murray too many times and for too long.

The skills are there, the heart is there too, but there seems a self-destruct mode surrounding the Scotsman. Obscure points, momentary breakdowns and deep sulks always seem to get in the way with this guy. Sometimes Murray appears to be looking for a way not to win. Or, perhaps it is that Murray seems like he is looking for a way to pin his inability to win on some quirk of bad luck.

Over two weeks of Grand Slam competition, success has very little to do with luck. Grand Slam championships require two weeks of concentrated tennis. Winners get past the distractions, past the crowds, past the media coverage and on to the court with their best game in tact.

Murray has a 186 – 70 career won-lost record and a 31 – 5 year-to-date record. He is that good, he is that talented. With $7miilion in career earnings and with $1.7 million cashed in this year, 22 year-old Murray simply needs to get the game between his ears in line.

Fernando Verdasco

Ole! Can Fernando break through? He won the hearts at Melbourne, he is the world’s most improved player and he is the Horatio Alger of the 2009 season, but can he break through? Is clay his surface? Is Fernando a hard court specialist?

Bookmakers like him at 25/1, the gals love him on or off the court and the other players are now very aware of Fernando’s appeal and presence. 2009 seems like a hard earned dream for the Spaniard. Tennis enthusiasts would love to see a re-match of the stirring five-set Nadal-Verdasco matchup in Melbourne.

There is clearly no love lost between those two countrymen. Fernando has never escaped past the fourth round at Roland Garros, but he has never been in as good shape and played with such intensity as he has this season.

With $4 million in career earnings, Fernando is the bookmaker’s fifth seed and 8th ranked tour player. He is 23 – 8 this year, but his semi-final match in Australia has given his fans reason to expect a determined showing at Roland Garros.

Ole Fernando! All the way in Paris!